In order to derive predictions for the current round, this data was entered into a logistic regression. A logistic regression is a statistical model that is used to predict probabilities for two possible outcomes, in our case whether the respective team will make it to the next round or not. Predictors used were the goal difference from the first leg and the difference in points per game from the group phase as a simple estimate of the teams' general strength.
From 2020/21 onwards, when the current format of the Machineseeker EHF Champions League was introduced, this approach is easily utilised. The same applies to 2014/15 and earlier.
From 2015/16 until 2019/20, however, the group phase included two different types of groups. Groups A and B had one team immediately going into the quarter-finals, while five went into the last 16. Groups C and D together sent just two teams into the last 16. The teams in groups A and B were stronger than those from C and D.
Therefore, the points per game of the teams from the latter groups were divided by 2.2. Thus, their number of points per game roughly resembled those of a team that finished in fifth or sixth place in the first type of groups.
Of course, another way to predict the outcome is to simply ask ChatGPT!
What can be deduced for the current round
The model sees Kielce against Berlin as almost already decided. The six-goal difference and the fact that Füchse were clearly the better team in the group phase gives them a 98.6 per cent chance of progressing. The probability of a penalty shootout is less than 0.1 per cent, while Kielce are still considered to have a 1.4 per cent chance of progressing.
While Magdeburg won by four goals in Bucharest, during the game at times it looked like the German side would win by a higher margin, as they led by eight goals by the middle of the first half. If they had won by that much, the model would have given them a 99.1 per cent chance of advancing to the quarter-finals.
Nevertheless, the model gives them a probability of 95.0 per cent. Dinamo's chances of progressing are at 4.3 per cent and their chances of at least forcing a penalty shootout is at 0.7 per cent.
The calculations are, of course, also based on home advantage. The fact that Magdeburg will not play the second leg in their usual GETEC Arena due to scheduling conflicts but in the smaller and unfamiliar Anhalt-Arena in Dessau could therefore not be taken into account by the model but could become a factor on Wednesday.