The Raiffeisen Bank EHF FINAL4 2026 probabilities
For the final matches of the EHF Champions League Women and the Machineseeker EHF Champions League, data analyst Julian Rux provides the handball community with deep insights into the numbers behind the game, analysing what the data says about teams’ and players’ performances. To preview both the EHF FINAL4 2026 events — the Raiffeisen Bank EHF FINAL4 2026 and TruckScout24 EHF FINAL4 2026 — he looks at where each team stands out and how probable it is for them to win it all.
This adjustment is done by calculating how many goals scored and conceded per 50 possessions would be expected for each game and team by the number of goals the opponents scored and conceded per 50 possessions in their other games. So-called “garbage time,” when the game is already decided, is also filtered out.
Based on these numbers, Brest leads the competition in attack with opponent-adjusted 29.4 goals per 50 possessions. Some of the more traditional stats back this up as they have the best shooting efficiency with 67.7 per cent as well as the second fewest turnovers with 8.2 per 50 possessions.
However, if they want to win it all, Brest must step up on the other side of the court. With an opponent-adjusted 26.3 goals conceded per 50 possessions, they rank fourth last of the whole competition.
Therefore, the prediction model, which is trained on this opponent-adjusted data, sees Brest as the underdogs of the Raiffeisen Bank EHF FINAL4 2026. It sees them winning in just 7.3 per cent of the simulations — the fewest of all four remaining teams.
Favourites Györ
However, the fact that Brest are viewed as the underdogs is not only due to their own performance, but to their formidable opponents in the semi-finals. Indeed, the model predicts that Györi Audi ETO KC are the clear favourites to win it all, with a 49.0 per cent probability of winning.
They are outstanding in defence and offence, ranking second in both, with opponent-adjusted 28.5 goals scored and 22.5 goals conceded per 50 possessions.
Their outstanding turnover statistics are particularly striking. Not only do Györ turn the ball over the least, at 8.1 per 50 possessions, they also force their opponents to 12.2 turnovers per 50 possessions — more than any other team.
In addition, Györ’s goalkeepers Zsófi Szemerey and Hatadou Sako have played an outstanding season, saving a combined 34.1 per cent of the shots on their goal — the best of all goalkeeping teams. Szemerey also leads all 20 goalkeepers that faced at least 250 shots in save rate, with 36.3 per cent.
Defensive wall Metz
In the other semi-final, the favourites are not quite so clear cut, but still the model sees Metz Handball as the favourites here. They are predicted to win the title with a probability of 28.6 per cent, which is largely down to their outstanding defence.
With an opponent-adjusted 22.4 goals conceded per 50 possessions, they boast the best defence in the competition. The goalkeepers play a major role for them too: For non-penalty attempts, Sabrina Novotná and Johanna Bundsen are just ahead of Györ, with a combined 35.5 per cent saves. However, for seven-metre penalty throws, their save rate is the second lowest of the EHF Champions League, at 15.6 per cent.
Looking to the attack, line player Sarah Bouktit stands out. She clearly has the best field shooting accuracy among all 33 players with at least six field attempts per game, at 75.2 per cent.
But still, Metz rank only sixth in attack, with an opponent-adjusted 27.0 goals per 50 possessions. One of the reasons for this, however, is simply bad luck, as they have the fewest second chances. The French side retain possession after just 11.2 per cent of their unsuccessful shooting attempts.
Heliocentric CSM
In terms of basic statistics, CSM Bucuresti have a similar but slightly worse profile than their semi-final opponents, Metz. They are strong in defence (24.3 opponent-adjusted goals conceded per 50 possessions, ranking third), whilst there is still room for improvement in attack (26.6 opponent-adjusted goals scored per 50 possessions, ranking eighth).
Therefore, the model gives Bucharest lower chances than Metz to win the title. It sees them lifting the trophy in 15.1 per cent of the simulations.
In attack, CSM rely heavily on Elizabeth Omoregie. The Slovenian international has ended 21.1 per cent of her team’s attacks — the third highest of the EHF Champions League — either with a field attempt, receiving a seven-metre penalty throw or causing a turnover.
Valeriia Maslova, who ranks second in offensive responsibility for CSM, is around six percentage points behind Omoregie. In basketball, this is often referred to as “heliocentric,” as there is a similarity between a player in the centre of the attack and a model of the universe where everything revolves around the sun. So, for the team to stand a chance, it might be necessary for more players to step up.
A minor point, but one that is very interesting considering Metz's stats, is that CSM allow the fewest second chances: CSM gain possession after 88.3 per cent of their opponent’s unsuccessful shots. So, Metz should not count on having any better luck here either.
More from data analyst Julian Rux can be found at Handballytics.de. There you can read his latest articles, in which he analyses all kinds of handball topics from new, data-based perspectives. You can also find him on Instagram, Bluesky and WhatsApp.
