What 10,000 simulations tell us about the rest of the season

After the last matchday, the Machineseeker EHF Champions League now enters its two-month winter break. With 10 games played, trends are clearly emerging. Barça again seem to be the team to beat with just one lost game. But their opponents in last year's semi-final, SC Magdeburg, are still hot on their heels. In group A, somewhat surprisingly, as they had problems in the German Bundesliga, Kiel were able to pull away slightly at the top. But behind them there is only a three-point difference between second-placed Aalborg and seventh-placed Kolstad.

The offensive and defensive efficiency overviews allow a quick first impression of the performances on both ends of the field. Here, goals were adjusted to 50 possessions, as adjusting goals (conceded) to the same number of possessions makes teams actually comparable since the raw number of goals is not only influenced by efficiency but also by the number of possessions (whether a team and their opponents play rather fast or slow).

The chart shows at first glance that three teams – Veszprém (31.2 goals per 50 possessions), Magdeburg (30.8) and Barcelona (30.7) – are significantly better in offence than the rest. In terms of both shooting percentage and turnovers, the three are the best teams. Where Barça differ from the other two, however, is that they are also outstanding in defence. With only 25.7 goals conceded per 50 possessions, they are the best team here. Magdeburg are only slightly above average (27.2), while Veszprém are clearly below average (28.4).

On the other side of the spectrum HC Eurofarm Pelister have many problems scoring (22.5 goals per 50 possessions) while RK Celje Pivovarna Laško have the most problems in defence (31.1 goals conceded per 50 possessions. FC Porto’s numbers don’t look much better as they rank second last in both categories (25.3/29.9).

The other teams can be categorised in two clusters. Cluster one consists of Aalborg, Kiel, Montpellier, Kolstad, and Zagreb. They all have good defences but are only average in attack. Kielce, Paris, Plock, Szeged, and GOG are the second cluster. They are relatively average on both sides.

Almost everything is possible in group A

Based on the standings, these statistics, and more numbers on the teams’ performances, win probabilities for each game can be calculated. In turn, with these the outcome of the rest of the season can be simulated. Every remaining game of the group phase as well as the matches from the knockout phase that resulted from these were simulated 10,000 times. This yielded the following results.

In group A, the only thing that’s decided yet is, that HC Eurofarm Pelister will not make it into the knockout stage. Besides that, there is even the (albeit very small) chance that group leader THW Kiel will not make it into the knockout stage. Nevertheless, of this group the Zebras were the team that reached the knockout stage, the quarterfinals, the TruckScout24 EHF FINAL4 2024 and the final as well as winning the title the most often in the simulations.

Aalborg and Kielce are currently tied in terms of points at 12, but Aalborg have finished ahead of the Polish side more often in the simulations as they have the easier schedule. The two teams will also meet on the final gameday, with Aalborg having the home advantage. The Danes also currently have the better head-to-head record, as they won 31:34 in Kielce. The same applies to PSG and Szeged, who currently both have 11 points and will face each other on the last gameday as well with PSG winning the first matchup in Hungary 29:31.

Even though Kolstad currently just rank seventh they still reached the knockout stage in more than half of the simulations because the group is so close. They even won the title in 0.8 %. Zagreb are in a slightly better position, as they already have one point more.

The favourites are in group B

Group B is not quite as tight as group A, but they have the three teams with the highest win probability of the competition. Leading the way are of course Barça. The Spanish champions have already booked their ticket to the knockout stage and almost certainly to the quarter-final as well. They also were the team that reached the TruckScout24 EHF FINAL4 2024 and the final way more often than any other team and won the title in more than one third of the simulations.

Magdeburg and Veszprém have secured their spot in the knockout stage already as well. The question is just which of them will go directly to the quarter-final and which will have to go through the play-off round. The defending champions have a slight advantage due to the two more points they already have. However, they will also face each other on the final matchday, and the head-to-head record is in favour of the Hungarian side after a 28:33 away win. In addition, the stats see Veszprém as the currently slightly better team which is why they won the title in more simulations than Magdeburg.

For Montpellier and GOG, the season will continue at a very high probability after the group stage as well, while for Celje the season is already over. Very interesting are Plock and Porto. They currently both stand at six points, but the Polish side has reached each knockout stage way more often in the simulations. The main reasons for that are that Plock has the much better statistics and that the two teams face each other on the last gameday as well. While Porto won at home 24:23 in more simulations Plock won the head-to-head record to make it to the quarter-final. In 1.3 % of the simulations even both of them made it to the knockout stage.

But all of these are just probabilities from simulations while the Machineseeker EHF Champions League and TruckScout24 EHF FINAL4 2024 have shown often enough that the unlikely can happen.

More from data analyst Julian Rux can be found at Handballytics.de. There you can read his latest articles, in which he analyses all kinds of handball topics from new, data-based perspectives. You can also find him on Instagram, Facebook and Twitter.

Photo © 2023 Sara Gordon